USA Today: How Weak RV Sales Could Mean a ’23 Recession

If you still have doubts about whether the U.S. will slip into a recession, perhaps this will dispel them: the RV industry is significantly weakening, according to a USA Today report.

A slump in recreational vehicle sales has long been considered an early warning sign of a broader economic downturn because an RV is such a discretionary, big-ticket purchase. It thus reflects a shift in the mood of the American consumer before other types of spending, the theory goes. And consumption makes up about 70% of the U.S. economy.

The Elkhart, Indiana, metro area, where about 80% of RVs are produced, is similarly viewed as a leading gauge of where the U.S. is headed because the region is so dependent on the industry.

In November, RV shipments from manufacturers to dealers tumbled 50.4% from the same period a year earlier to 24,445, according to the RV Industry Association (RVIA). For the first 11 months of 2022, wholesale RV shipments totaled 472,691, 15.6% below the year-ago figure, the trade group says.

“If production doesn’t rebound, it’s a very strong signal we will be moving into a recession next year,” says Michael Hicks, an economics professor at Ball State University who studies the industry.

Read the full USA Today report.

Source: https://rvbusiness.com/usa-today-how-weak-rv-sales-could-mean-a-23-recession/